Friday, November 28, 2008

Who's Behind the Mumbai Attacks, Part III

US intelligence seems to thinks the group responsible may be Lashkar-e-Toiba. From the New York Times:
WASHINGTON — American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said Friday that there was mounting evidence that a Pakistani militant group based in Kashmir, most likely Lashkar-e-Taiba, was responsible for this week’s deadly attacks in Mumbai.

The officials cautioned that they had reached no firm conclusions about who was responsible for the attacks, or how they were planned and carried out. Nevertheless, they said that evidence gathered in the past two days pointed to a role for Lashkar-e-Taiba or possibly another group based in Kashmir, Jaish-e-Muhammad, which also has a track record of attacks against India.

US intelligence has more credibility in these matter than India intelligence. If this is confirmed, it looks like bad news, especially if we begin seeing evidence support from the Pakistani government.
According to one Indian intelligence official, during the siege the militants have been using non-Indian cellphones and receiving calls from outside the country, evidence that in part led Indian officials to speak publicly about the militants’ external ties.

Lashkar-e-Taiba denied any responsibility on Thursday for the terrorist strikes. American intelligence agencies have said that the group has received some training and logistical support in the past from Pakistan’s powerful spy service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or I.S.I., and that Pakistan’s government has long turned a blind eye to Lashkar-e-Taiba camps in the Kashmir region, a disputed territory over which India and Pakistan have fought two wars.

Officials in Washington said Friday that there was no evidence that the Pakistani government had any role in the attacks.

Washington would deny that, wouldn't they? They don't want to see a nuclear war on the peninsula. What interests me is why the head of the ISI cancelled his trip to India, and instead is sending some flunky in his place. Perhaps he know that a drip-drip of information will point to his organization, and does not wish be embarrassed by the Indians asking questions. Stay tuned.


Ajith said...

There is no doubt that the terrorists will track back to Let>ISI>Pak Army. GPS data of the ship which the terrorist came, arrested terrorist's revelations etc are clear evidence which no one can deny. The question here is will India stop preaching non violence and react to this terror like how Americans did?

Ewan Compton said...

I actually strongly suspect you're right that this will track back to the ISI. The idea that India is "preaching non-violence" seems wildly off-base, probably having it's origin in watching "Gandhi" a few times too many. Whatever happens, violence will be part of it. The kind of response you're hinting you want (war with Pakistan) would be catastrophic, and play directly into the terrorist's hands, just like the United States did.

Ajith said...

India made the right start by convincing west that the terror originated from Pakistan. We managed to create an international awareness about the kind of things happening inside pakistan. Its not a war which I am hoping for, its action from Pak government. Unfortunately I doubt their powers, especially when it comes to ISI and Army. We are left with very few few choices. we cannot let them off the hook this time as we have managed to corner them. If a war is inevitable, we might as well have to take that option coz their is a difference between dieing in a battleground like a man and dieing in ur own houses and streets like dogs.

Ewan Compton said...

I too want to see action from the Pakistani government as opposed to war. But even if Pakistan does mover, the results of war are too dire, and could even become a nuclear conflict. Clearly, this attack was an attempt to stir up enmity between India and Pakistan, distracting Pakistan from fighting the extremists in that country, which is why I have stated a violent response would play into the terrorist's hands.